Skiles has Orlando bettors making magic at the sportsbook
Covers Expert “Big” Al McMordie listens closely to the heartbeat of the NBA hardwood, breaking down this week’s hoops schedule and its best betting opportunities. Spread watch
The Orlando Magic have busted out of the gates with a 7-0 ATS record, though they've won just three of those seven games on the scoreboard. Still, Scott Skiles' men are rewarding their fans in Las Vegas and that's not much of a surprise, given his history as a head coach who gets the most out of his players at the start of a tenure.
In his last coaching gig with the Milwaukee Bucks (2008-2013), Skiles' men were 23-10-1 ATS his first 34 games. His stint with the Chicago Bulls (2003-2007) didn't start off as hot, but the Bulls still covered 16 of his first 30 games. And his first year with the Phoenix Suns (1999-2000) was spectacular, as Phoenix opened with a 46-25-2 ATS mark.
On Monday, the Magic will travel to Bankers Life Fieldhouse to play the Pacers, who are on a 4-0 ATS run. Indiana's also 4-0 SU and ATS vs. the Magic the last four meetings, so something will have to give Monday night.
Total watch
The Utah Jazz have opened the season by playing five of six games Under the total. Last year, Utah ranked 14th in Defensive Net Rating (105.91) but currently ranks first in that category (93.40). The key for the Jazz is the play of center Rudy Gobert. He’s the league's best rim protector and limiting opponents to just 30.9 percent of their shot attempts when he’s within both five feet of the basket and five feet of the shooter.
This week, the Jazz will face two other teams playing great defense: the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat. On Tuesday, the Jazz will travel to Cleveland to play the fifth-ranked team in defensive efficiency (after ranking 18th last season) which is 3-4 Over/Under.
Then, on Thursday, Utah will play at Miami. The Heat are currently riding a 0-6 O/U run and rank 10th in defensive efficiency (after ranking 21st last season). The Under will surely be worth a look in each of those two games.
Injury watch
The New Orleans Pelicans have been thinned by injuries to start the season and suffered another tough break last week. Veteran center Kendrick Perkins suffered a right pectoral injury in New Orleans' 134-120 loss to Golden State and will miss up to three months.
Perkins' injury is the latest setback for New Orleans, which is already missing Norris Cole (ankle), Tyreke Evans (knee) and Quincy Pondexter (knee). And Jrue Holiday' minutes have been limited, as he recovers from a stress fracture in his right leg. Not surprisingly, these injuries have been the primary reason the Pelicans are off to a 0-6 SU and ATS start. And their unadjusted Net Rating of -11.91 ranks 28th, ahead of only 0-6 Philadelphia (-12.54) and 0-7 Brooklyn (-13.21).
The Pelicans will kick off this week with a revenge game Tuesday versus Dallas, which beat New Orleans 107-98, as a 5-point favorite Saturday. With Dallas on an 8-16-1 ATS run when going into revenge spots, and New Orleans 41-24-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge, the Pelicans might be worth a look Tuesday.
Playbook
Last year, in coach Derek Fisher's first season, the New York Knicks ranked 28th (out of 30) in pace of play. Even worse, in each of the last three seasons (so not totally coach Fisher's fault), the Knicks have ranked dead last in fastbreak points per game. And when you combine a horrid half-court offense with hardly any transition baskets, you get a team that ranks next-to-last in offensive efficiency.
It was a priority for Fisher to have his team get out on the fast break, and shoot early in the shot clock this season, before the defense could get set. No longer is running the Triangle Offense the team's highest priority. For New York's first three games (2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U), they had 19, 17 and 10 fastbreak points. But in their last four games (1-3 ATS, 0-4 O/U), the Knicks have recorded 0, 0, 14 and 8 fastbreak points. Their pace of play now ranks 20th in the NBA.
Keep an eye on these categories, because if New York continues to fail to push the pace and/or convert transition buckets, their games are likely to go Under. On Tuesday, New York will visit Toronto, which is on a 0-5 O/U run itself. But the Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams at Air Canada Centre.
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