1* Free Play OVER Pens/Devils.
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How do you go about basing your Over/Under picks in the NHL (or in any sport for that matter?). Do you look for a team that’s currently red hot offensively and simply bet the OVER? Do you automatically assume a total will go UNDER the number because a team has done well defensively of late? Those of course are the most obvious factors to base a “totals” play on, and while “recent performance” does play a role in my selection process, it’s certainly not the only set of criteria that I use. Anyone that’s followed me for any lengthy of time knows that I am primarily a “situational” handicapper at heart, but that I don’t follow any one particular methodology religiously and that I believe remaining “flexible” at all times is the best way to approach a contest. Being a situtational handicapper allows you to take the “players” out of the equation a lot of the time, and for me that’s definitely the case for the most part, it rarely matters who is playing and who isn’t in my process (unless of course it’s a Top 5 player like LeBron James or Tom Brady etc). It’s not a big secret in that I base my Over/Under picks on “lop sided” trends and numbers and in this case, each team has played to the UNDER a few times coming into this one, switching the value to the higher number in my opinion. While the Pens opened the second half with a 5-3 win over Winnipeg, they’d then revert and fall 4-0 the following night to Washington; Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four. New Jersey came out of the break with a low-scoring 2-1 win over Toronto, after playing to three straight OVERs to end the first half. However take note that of the three games these teams have already played against each other this season, two of of them have dipped below the posted number, including in the last two straight. I’ll be the first to admit that the “Law Of Averages” is flawed in many ways, but I have always felt that “lopsided” numbers and trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long term. I think there are enough factors working in our favor here to pull the trigger on the OVER.
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